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From: joelonsoftware <rssfeeds@example.com>
Subject: Daniel Berlinger has noticed that Mac software shops are starting
    to move t
Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 15:28:30 -0000
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URL: http://www.joelonsoftware.com/news/20020910.html
Date: Not supplied

Daniel Berlinger has noticed[1] that Mac software shops are starting to move to 
OS X-only development. This makes sense, for two reasons. First, most people 
who pay for software have new computers. So while OS X may only have a small 
fraction of the installed base, it has the majority of the population of people 
who are opening their wallets. Second, if OS X isn't successful, the Mac is _
over_. It's not like System 9 is getting any more popular. 

Then again, there are very few conditions under which it is actually the right 
business decision to develop software for the Macintosh. Developing for the Mac 
is not a whole lot different than creating a web site _that only works on 
Netscape_. (Given the market share of Macs[2] (about 3.5%) and the market share 
of Netscape[3] (about 3.4%), that is not a silly comparison.) 

Robb Beal wrote[4]: "Try this test. Go to a venture firm, angel, or big company 
with a Mac OS X product/concept/prototype. Do they consider the fact that it's 
a Mac application a net plus? (No.)" Well _duh_. Your product would have to 
appeal to _25 times more Mac _users_ _[as a percentage] than Windows users just 
to break even. In other words, if your Windows product appeals to 1 in 100 
Windows users, you have to appeal to 25 in 100 Mac users to make the same 
amount of money. 

Now, you may want to make an _emotional_ appeal to developing for the Mac. 
That's fine. If you like Macs and you're doing it for fun, more power to ya. 

But as long as we're talking _investment_, you have to tell me why you're going 
to get 25 times as many users. Maybe there's less competition in your category 
on the Mac; maybe you're in a niche like graphics where it seems like Macs 
dominate (they don't, it just seems that way because the elite graphics people 
in big American cities use Macs); maybe your product can't sell to mixed 
environments unless it runs everywhere. But if you want to make an investment 
in Mac software be prepared to demonstrate how you're going to overcome that 
magic 25 multiplier.

[1] http://archipelago.phrasewise.com/2002/09/10
[2] http://maccentral.macworld.com/news/0207/03.marketshare.php
[3] http://websidestory.com/cgi-bin/wss.cgi?corporate&news&press_1_193
[4] http://radio.weblogs.com/0001123/2002/04/10.html


